Petrol up, diesel down — from the same oil
explanationTankslim
Something is happening this week that doesn't seem right at first glance. The price of oil is rising sharply: Brent crude has gone up by about eight percent in a week and stands at around 95 dollars per barrel. You would expect the prices of both petrol and diesel to rise along with it.
They don't.
- Super E10
- € 2.155€ 2.183+2,8 ct
- Diesel
- € 2.248€ 2.232−1,6 ct
Petrol up, diesel down. In the same week, in the same country, from the same crude oil.
And this isn't just a random week. Over a longer period, something even more striking is happening:
Data: ADAC, weekly averages in euros per litre.
Look at June 23: diesel cost €1.731 at the time and petrol €1.817—diesel was almost nine cents cheaper. Three weeks later, they were level, and after that, diesel overtook petrol. Today, diesel is actually five cents more expensive than petrol.
That same graph also shows how sharply both have risen over three months: since the low point in late June, petrol has become more than 36 cents more expensive, and diesel as much as fifty cents. The German motoring association ADAC calls this striking and concludes that the price of oil does not fully explain the prices at the pump.
Why that is less strange than it seems
Crude oil is not a finished product. In a refinery, a barrel is split into gasoline, diesel, kerosene, heating oil, and a range of other products. Each of these products has its own market, its own inventory levels, and its own demand.
As a result, their prices can diverge:
- Seasonality. After the summer, demand for gasoline in Europe drops, whereas demand for diesel and heating oil picks up as winter approaches.
- Inventories. Well-stocked diesel reserves put downward pressure on the price, even if the barrel from which the diesel is derived becomes more expensive.
- Refining margin. A refinery's earnings per product vary and fluctuate in line with that demand.
- Lag. A rise in the price of crude oil does not reach the pump on the same day. Nor does a drop, for that matter—and that usually takes longer.
In short: the oil price represents the raw material, not the pump price. What you pay is the cost of raw material plus refining, transport, margins, excise duty, and VAT. The oil price is just one item on that list.
And in the Netherlands?
Dutch drivers have been looking across the border for cheaper fuel for years. That price advantage has narrowed.
There is still a difference of over fifty cents per liter compared to the recommended retail price. However, the recommended price is not what you actually pay in the Netherlands—more on that later. And anyone driving across the border solely to refuel needs to factor in the cost of those extra kilometers. ## What you can do yourself
The ADAC offers one concrete piece of advice: fill up around midday. Prices in Germany are lowest around that time; afterwards, they shoot up, only to gradually drop again as the day progresses.
That pattern is real, but it is a German pattern, observed at German gas stations. Whether the same applies in the Netherlands—and whether the situation in Groningen is the same as in Limburg—is a question that can only be answered using Dutch price data measured by region.
We are working on that—in the meantime, check out the prices in your region.
The savings you can make today
While everyone focuses on the price of oil, there is a more significant figure closer to home: the price difference between two gas stations in your area. In the Netherlands, this difference can reach over forty cents per liter for the exact same fuel on the same day.
For a forty-liter fill-up, that amounts to sixteen euros. The price of oil would have to fluctuate significantly to cause such a shift—and there is nothing you can do to influence the price of oil.
